We have revised our forecast for HPG's revenue and net profit in 2024 from VND 142,917 billion and VND 12,492 billion to VND 136,645 billion and VND 10,511 billion, respectively, due to a sharper-than-expected decline in steel price. BVSC lowers HPG's target price from VND 37,800/share to VND 34,500/share (equivalent to a P/E of 21.0x/17.4x for 2024/2025), which is quite reasonable given the stable profit growth outlook (CAGR EPS of 7.7%/year in 2024-2040) and recommends OUTPERFORM for HPG stock in the next 12 months with an upside potential of +36.6%.

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