Macroeconomy

• Exchange rate: In the long run, VND has support from the overall balance of payment and trade surplus.
• Inflation: Multi-prong pressure.
• Monetary policy: Deposit rates have been very low but are starting to rise again. However, the government's direction, together with the prevailing low deposit rates, will likely maintain low lending rates, supporting credit expansion and economic growth.
• With growth momentum returning across 3 pillars – consumption, manufacturing & export, and investment, GDP growth of the remaining quarters will be maintained. GDP growth for 2024 is projected at 6%.

Stock market

• BVSC maintains its view that 2024 brings together many factors to start a new growth cycle.
• Stock market landscape in the first half of the year. Low domestic interest rates are fueling domestic cash flow, which is offsetting foreign investor net selling and keeping the market on a positive trajectory.
• Domestic cash flow: Low interest rates, easier access to capital for businesses, recovering credit growth, and increased capital raised by securities firms all point to a more stable domestic cash flow in the market compared to 2022-2023.
• Attractive valuations of Banking sector to support market. Overall market P/E falls to low levels due to bank stocks, while P/E of non-financial and real estate firms remains high. Stock prices of many industries have already reflected expectations for 2024 earnings.
• BVSC maintains forecast of VnIndex reaching 1,350 in 2024.