Macroeconomy

• In January 2025, the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) decreased by 9.2% MoM and increased by 0.6% YoY. The decline in production activity was primarily due to seasonal factors, as the Tet holiday fell in the last week of January. We expect the IIP growth to be more positive starting from February, as the seasonal factor has passed;
• Total retail sales of goods and services in January 2025 reached approximately VND 573.32 trillion, an increase of 9.5% YoY;
• Regarding public investment, capital from the state budget in January 2025 reached VND 35,428 billion, up 7.55% YoY, completing 4.13% of the annual plan. In 2025, the public investment disbursement target is set at VND 878 trillion, the highest ever. This will be an important growth driver for the 8% growth target. According to BVSC's estimates, if the full target is achieved, public investment will directly contribute 2.22 percentage points to GDP growth;
• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.63% YoY in January. The inflation pressure in the first month of the year mainly came from the food, housing & construction materials, and healthcare sectors. The government has adjusted its inflation target for 2025 from 4.5% to 4.5-5% to serve the economic growth target of over 8%. With high comparison bases for items like gasoline, rice, and pork in the second half of 2024, which will help ease the pressure on the CPI, we believe inflation will remain under control in 2025;
• As of February 10, the VND has appreciated by 0.39% compared to the end of 2024. However, pressure from the USD remains in the context of U.S. President Donald Trump's continuous changes to tariffs since taking office, which have increased concerns about U.S. inflation being difficult to curb, potentially disrupting the Fed's rate cut process. However, the overnight interest rate differential between VND and USD has shifted to a positive state again, which is expected to alleviate pressure on the VND in 2025.

Stock market

• VnIndex closed at 1,265.05 points, down slightly by 1.73 points, or 0.14% compared to the previous month. The growth of the Industrial Services sector was driven by the performance of stocks in the Port and Container Transport industries, fueled by market expectations that container import demand will surge as U.S. companies stockpile goods due to concerns over tariff policies.
• The average trading value per session on HOSE in January reached VND 11.39 trillion, down 21.96% compared to the end of 2024 and the lowest since March 2023. The total trading value across the three exchanges reached VND 12.83 trillion, a decrease of 22.31% compared to the previous month. The market saw subdued trading activity ahead of the holiday break, coupled with concerns over the potential changes in U.S. tariff policies with the inauguration of President Donald Trump.
• Margin continued to rise while liquidity declined.
• Foreign investors have been net sellers in several Asian markets, including Vietnam, ahead of the U.S. presidential inauguration. Foreign investors sold a net of VND 6.486 trillion on HOSE, with a focus on the Real Estate and Information Technology sectors. The selling pressure from foreign investors may continue next month.
• The positive growth in net profit of enterprises, as well as attractive valuations, will serve as a "support" for the market amid potential external uncertainties.