The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in January 2024 decreased by 4.4% compared to December 2023 but increased by 18.3% YoY. The IIP of different industries recorded growth YoY, especially amongst export-oriented sectors. With the PMI returning above the 50-point threshold, We believe that the production outlook will continue to improve in the coming months​;

Total retail sales of goods and services in January 2024 were estimated at VND 524.12 trillion, up by 8.11% YoY and 1.58% MoM. Consumption growth is still struggling as the labor utilization index in the industrial sector remained at a low level, affecting income;

Regarding public investment, investment capital from the state budget in January reached VND 31,119 billion, up by 15.56% YoY and down by 59.77% MoM. The disbursement value in the first month of 2024 completed 4.3% of the whole year plan. With many projects that have had investment policies approved, have specific implementation plans, and have gone through preparation stages such as paperwork and land clearance in previous years, we believe that public investment will go smoothly this year, and it is expected that 95-100% of the plan set out at the beginning of the year will be completed;

The CPI increased by 3,37% YoY and 0.31% MoM in January. Inflation pressure was somewhat reduced as core CPI rose for the lowest in around 1.5 years. Meanwhile, pressure from rice prices, tuition fees, and rents remained significant. Nevertheless, we believe that the overall inflation situation in 2024 will be under control, expected to increase by less than 4%, lower than   the Government’s target (4-4.5%);

As of 01/30/2024, the VND depreciated by 0.59% against the USD. The exchange rate is still under pressure from the USD’s fluctuations, but the risk is not as great as in 2022-2023 and is only short-term. Pressure on exchange rates will ease when the Fed’s roadmap to lower interest rates becomes clearer.

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