The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) increased by 3.92% MoM and 3.69% YoY. In 7M2023, the IIP decreased by 0.67% over the same period. However, the PMI climbed to a 5-month high with the softest decline of new orders, signifying the prospect that the down state of manufacturing and export may subside in the coming months;

Total retail sales of goods and services in July reached VND 512.17 trillion, up by 7.11% YoY and 1.12% MoM. Consumption growth is facing multiple challenges from the negative growth of both domestic production and export (causing a decrease in domestic demand) and the world economy (causing slow growth of travel and tourism);

Investment disbursement from the state budget in July reached VND 58,536 billion, up by 28.09% YoY and 7.45% MoM. Thus, accumulated in 7M2023, the disbursement of the state budget totaled VND 291,130 billion, up by 22.79% YoY and completing 41.3% of the 2023 plan. We believe that public investment will maintain significant growth as the disbursement of public investment usually accelerates in the last months of the year;

CPI climbed 2.06% YoY in July, continually rising at a low level yet the CPI’s cooling down pace has somewhat slowed. Rising electricity prices coupled with a less generous decrease in gasoline prices in August as well as in the coming months may cause higher pressure on CPI. However, with ample room to maneuver (the CPI only increased by 3.12% in 7M2023), we maintain our view that the CPI for 2023 will only hover by 3-3.5%;

By July 31st, the VND has depreciated by 0.24% against the USD. Due to lesser external pressure, especially from the USD, we believe that the VND will have a more stable performance this year, fluctuating within ±2% compared to the end of 2022, thanks to a trade surplus and growing remittances.