The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in October increased by 5.5% MoM and 4.1% YoY. This result pulled the overall gain in 10M2023 to 0.5% YoY. The IIP of many industries saw positive growth after 10M2023, however, with PMI continuing to be below 50 pts, business conditions in the manufacturing sector still experienced difficulties​;

Total retail sales of goods and services in October were estimated to reach VND 536.33 trillion, up by 7.02% YoY, marking the 6th consecutive month of weak growth (single-digit figure), compared to an average increase of 11-12% in the period before the pandemic). With existing inflationary pressures and growth expectations not yet improving, we believe that consumption growth in the last 2 months will remain low and projected 2023 consumption will only increase by about 9% YoY​;

Regarding public investment, investment capital from the state budget in October reached VND 65,661 billion, an increase of 23% YoY and 5.74% MoM. Thus, accumulated in 10M2023, state budget disbursement reached VND 479,424 billion, an increase of 23.74% YoY and completing approximately 66% of the 2023 plan. In the remaining 2 months, we expect the total disbursement value to reach about VND 69-87 trillion, meeting 85-90% of the initial plan;

The CPI increased by 3.59% YoY in October. CPI in the remaining 2 months is forecast to be within 3.5-4%, under pressure from higher tuition fees, certain items of food, house rent, and gasoline prices compared to the same period last year. However, for the whole year, the CPI is forecast to increase by about 3.5%, lower than the Government's target (4.5%);

As of October 31st, the VND depreciated by 3.94% compared to the USD. Pressure on exchange rates remains, especially before the Fed's policy meetings. However, with the Fed likely to stop raising interest rates as well as planning to lower interest rates in 2024, we believe that the USD’s appreciation will only be short-term and will not create substantial pressure on the USD/VND exchange rate as in 2022.

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