The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in July 2024 increased by 0.69% MoM and 11.23% YoY. In the first 7 months of the year, the IIP grew by 8.47% YoY. As the PMI index has remained above 50 for four months in a row, we expect the production and export sectors to continue their recovery trend in the months ahead;

The total retail sales of goods and consumer services in Vietnam reached an estimated VND528.29 trillion in July 2024, increasing by 9.41% YoY and by 1.35% MoM. The substantial government spending on wage reforms, combined with rising worker incomes driven by export recovery, VAT cuts, and low-interest rates, is expected to boost consumer spending in the second half of 2024;

Public investment from the state budget reached VND57,571 billion in July 2024, showing an 8.17% MoM increase but a 1.14% YoY decrease. In 7M24, the total disbursement of public investment reached VND301,478 billion, up 3.66% YoY, fulfilling 44.51% of the annual target. Given the significant amount of capital allocated, we anticipate a smooth disbursement of public investment this year and expect to achieve 95-100% of our annual target;

The CPI grew by 4.36% YoY in July. Inflation pressure in the final months of the year will mainly come from the pork price, while other items like rice, fuel, tuition, and rent are already facing higher base effects. The CPI is projected to rise by around 4-4.1% throughout 2024;

The Vietnamese Dong has weakened by 4.16% against the US Dollar as of July 31st. The Fed's anticipated interest rate cuts beginning in September and the cooling-off of the have eased pressure on the VND and other currencies. With inflation under control and exchange rate pressures easing, the SBV can maintain a monetary policy that supports the economy.